Vitesse vs NAC Breda: BTTS and Goal Stats — 3 October 2026

Kickoff: Saturday 3 October, 14:30 UTC / 16:30 in the Netherlands. Venue: GelreDome. Competition: Eerste Divisie.

NAC Breda's recent goals records look stronger than Vitesse's, but the sample sizes deserve as much attention as the percentages. Both teams scored in seven of NAC's eight eligible league matches in this saved record, compared with six of Vitesse's latest ten. Narrow the view to NAC away matches and the figure becomes four out of four. That is a record of four games, not a reliable expectation that the next one will follow the same pattern.

This football preview compares verified historical results for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. It does not offer a betting pick or a forecast probability.

The all-venue comparison

The combined record counts each match once. There are no shared fixture IDs between these two selected samples. It is an observation across 18 different matches, not an estimate that this fixture has a 72% chance of either outcome.

Vitesse's latest ten include eight matches from 2026/27 and two from the previous season. NAC's eight are all from the current Eerste Divisie season. The source capture covers results from 1 January 2026 onward: NAC's 17 captured Eredivisie results are excluded because a different division must not be used to fill this league sample. Older NAC seasons outside this capture are not treated as if they do not exist.

Home and away produce higher percentages—and a smaller away sample

Venue changes both the opponents being considered and the amount of evidence. Vitesse's home sample contains four games from this season and six from the previous one; NAC's four away games are all from this season. One different outcome in four games would change the recorded rate by 25 percentage points. Read the denominator beside that 100%.

For a same-season check, both teams have eight eligible matches across all venues: Vitesse has 5/8 for each market, NAC 7/8, and the distinct combined record is 12/16. Restrict that current-season view to home and away and each side has just four matches: Vitesse 3/4, NAC 4/4, combined 7/8. These smaller groups help explain the filter's effect; they do not add independent evidence to the larger samples.

Equal totals do not make BTTS and Over 2.5 the same question

The two markets happen to have equal counts in these samples, but they ask different questions. Vitesse's 1–1 with RKC Waalwijk on 7 August counts for BTTS and not Over 2.5. Its 0–3 against Almere City on 21 August counts for Over 2.5 and not BTTS. A matching percentage can therefore hide different results underneath.

The useful takeaway is the disagreement between the teams, plus the sensitivity to venue and sample size. NAC's scoring-and-conceding pattern is more frequent in this evidence; Vitesse's all-venue record is less consistent. The fixture still needs to be assessed on its own terms.

Check the results behind the percentages

These are the saved full-time league results used by the two filters. Scores are shown from the named team’s perspective. A match can appear in both filters; the filters are alternative samples, not extra games to add together.

Data and further research

Sportmonks fixture identity was checked on 29 September 2026 at 14:04:47 UTC; histories were captured at 14:05:22–14:05:27 UTC. The fixture was not started. Only completed Eerste Divisie regular-season results recorded before this capture and the target kickoff qualify. League, season and regular-season stage identities were checked; other divisions, cups, friendlies, live scores and the target match result are excluded. The article's counts were independently recomputed from the provider records. Percentages are rounded; counts are exact. No player-absence, lineup, weather or odds claims are made here.

Explore Eerste Divisie BTTS stats, Eerste Divisie over/under goals, or the dashboard. Read how FootyTotals uses data and why seven out of ten is not a prediction.

Fixture programme: Vitesse · NAC Breda. Report a correction.