When home and away form changes the picture

A team’s last ten games and its last ten home games are different samples. Neither is automatically the better answer. The useful question is what changes when you compare them.

Start broad, then check the venue

All games gives you the most recent eligible results across both venues. Home / away uses the home team’s home results and the away team’s away results. That better matches where the upcoming game will be played, but ten games at one venue will usually reach further back.

Leeds–Newcastle shows why it matters

In the saved records before their 14 September meeting, Leeds’ all-games BTTS count is six of ten. At home it is three of ten. Newcastle goes from seven of ten across all venues to five of ten away.

Use the control below to compare the two views. The all-games combined record is 65%; the home-and-away record is 40%. Both calculations are correct for their respective samples.

A useful difference, not a causal explanation

The filter changes the dates and opponents as well as the venue. It may also bring in more games from the previous season. The lower rate does not prove that playing at home caused Leeds to have fewer BTTS results.

Inspect the match dates, whether the sample spans seasons, and the opponents. If the two views disagree, keep that uncertainty visible instead of choosing whichever percentage supports your first impression.

A simple research routine

Read the all-games record first. Change only the venue filter. Inspect the biggest difference and the results behind it, then look at scoring and conceding separately. That gives you a more specific question to take into the team news.